Good Time To Buy Some Euro's?

06/10/2010 - 06:36

Local Post Office is offering 1.16 to the £ and have also seen 1.18 to the £ at some London currency exchange offices did you think this is as good as it's going to get for a while?


I'm in the process of buying a property - and I will have to hand over the full amount in the next few months. I have a bank account in Italy already set-up with the co-op group (which by the way was relatively easy to set-up considering i'm not a resident). Anyway thru a currency broker, i was offered 1.21 as the rate to transfer some cash - but i'm waiting. IMO - the euro will get weaker over the coming weeks and indeed months - and I think 1.25 - 1.30 is more like the position is shuld be. Where every cent movement making my house purchase about £1000 cheaper, I am constantly reading and studying this. And shoot me down for a long term forecast, but I think the euro willnot exist in 5 years time!

If you think the euro will not exist in 5 years time, why are you buying now? If you are correct, wait for Italy to go back to the lire. Prices could easily be 40% lower in sterling terms.......unless, sterling falls out of bed as well.  

Pas, the crucial rate is euro-dollar. Sterling, now is such a small fragmant of the world community that it is easy to buffet about. At the start of the year, euro-dollar was 1.46. Now, about 1.20. Sterling has not really moved (on a trade weighted basis) despite moving from 1.10 to the the euro to 1.21 now. The fall / rise is in the euro-dollar rate, not sterling. If you think the euro will continue to underperform the dollar, then wait to buy sterling. Conversely, if you think the euro is going to bounce back against the dollar then buy sterling now. Whatever your opinion on the sterling-euro rate, it will be overwhelmed by movements in the euro-dollar rate.

If you have a known and ongoing requirement for euros, the sensible way is to buy some whenever you believe the rate is not too bad (like now) - even though you don't necessarily believe it won't get better next week, month, etc. That way you build up a fund to cover your outgoings during the times when you think the rate is really bad. If you try to second-guess the exact point to pounce and change all your money in one go, you are what is known as a currency speculator. In other words, do as I say, not as I do wink.